Publications & Selected Work in Progress

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1. How Research Affects Policy: Experimental Evidence from 2,150 Brazilian Municipalities, with Jonas Hjort, Diana Moreira and Gautam Rao

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American Economic Review, May 2021 [LINK]

Coverage: DerStandard, El Comercio, Exame, Folha SP I, Folha SP II, Het Financieele, LiveMint, Nexo, Pesquisa

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2. Connecting Research Evidence to Municipal Policymakers: Do Impact Evaluations Influence Public Policy? with Diana Moreira

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In Public Policies and the Use of Evidence: Concepts, Methods, Contexts, and Practices. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), 2022 (in Portuguese) [LINK]

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3. Shaping Police Officer Mindsets and Behaviors: Experimental Evidence from a Procedural Justice Training, with Rodrigo Canales, Alexis Cherem and Marina Gonzalez

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Management Science, conditionally accepted (2024)

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Research on organizational justice shows that perceptions of justice by internal and external agents are robust predictors of key organizational outcomes. But how can we promote the enactment of fair behavior by those with decision-making authority within organizations? This is particularly important for complex situations, where individual discretion is required and "necessary evils" are unavoidable. Few organizations face this challenge as intensely as police forces, where misconduct and bad decisions by their street-level bureaucrats can have large negative consequences. This paper treats justice as a dependent variable to investigate whether police officers can incorporate procedurally just perceptions and behaviors in their policing. We provide evidence from a randomized controlled trial with 1,854 Mexico City police officers that procedural justice training significantly changes perceptions and actual behavior in the streets (e.g. decreasing the likelihood of engaging in negative behavior with citizens). We find treatment effects in the range of 0.4 standard deviations for perceptions and 0.2 for behavior. Our research yields insights into critical moderators to consider in organizational training programs, including managerial alignment with the objectives of the training and consideration of employees’ views toward their clients and work environment.

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4. Revenue Slumps and Fiscal Capacity: Evidence from Brazil, with Claudio Ferraz and Dirk Foremny (2022)

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The capacity to tax is one of the main drivers of the development process, but yet little is known about when and why states intend to improve this capacity. This paper studies the impact of exogenous revenue shocks on investment in fiscal capacity in Brazil. Using a difference-in-difference event-study design, we analyze budgetary adjustments after an unexpected shock in formula transfers to local governments. A sudden reduction in transfer revenues induces governments to invest in fiscal capacity. Jurisdictions hit by a negative revenue shock increase local tax collection by approximately 30 percent. We show that part of this effect happens through broadening of the tax base, mainly due to additional spending on tax auditors and technicians, and an improvement of property tax-related registers.

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5. A Field Experiment on Door-to-Door Nonenforcement Community Policing Visits: Trust and Cooperation, with Rodrigo Canales and Jessica Zarkin (2022) [AEA RCT Registry]

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6. Knowledge-Based Hierarchies and the Organization of the State: Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities, with Claudio Ferraz (2019)

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Projects at Initial Stages

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1. Thinking Twice: Does Psychotherapy Influence Police Officer Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Mexico City Police, with Rodrigo Canales and Emma Seppala